By Andrea Tucci,
Since the Camp David Accords in 1978, Egypt has been the primary Arab country with real influence over the Palestinian issue monopolizing the Arab voice in speaking on behalf of the Palestinian cause.
After the military coup in the 2013 led by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, Cairo’s foreign policy shifted, prioritizing Sisi’s personal interests and those of his inner circle over Egypt’s national security.
Infact, Egypt’s regional role diminished as the state accumulated debt and the economy became increasingly fragile, while Gulf countries gained more influence by offering Cairo a financial lifeline.
The centre of gravity in the Arab world has shifted from Egypt to Saudi Arabia, which began playing an important role not only regionally, but also internationally and now Egypt is not longer the sole actor in the Palestinian file.
At the same time, with the normalization of relations between Israel and some Gulf states under the Abraham Accords, these countries emerged as key players in the Palestinian issue, surpassing the traditional roles of Egypt and Jordan.
Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar have gained significant influence, whether through the agreement of funding for the reconstruction of Gaza or political mediation between Israel and the Palestinians.
This became evident when Egypt ceded the strategic Tiran and Sanafir islands to Saudi Arabia in exchange for Riyadh’s support. Saudi Arabia and the UAE became the primary sponsors of the Sisi regime, and the concept of national security was redefined based on Gulf’s interests.
Specifically, these states view Islamist movements as a direct threat, and Egypt aligned with this stance, extending its fight against Islamist and Hamas, seeing it as an arm of the Muslim Brotherhood.
Despite Hamas officially severing ties with the Muslim Brotherhood and amending its 1988 founding charter in 2017 to remove references to the group, Egyptian authorities continued to view the group as an adversary.
After the 7 October 2023 Hamas attack in southern Israel, Egypt and the Gulf states found their interests aligned with Israel’s in seeking to eliminate the group, fearing that any Hamas victory would boost popular support for armed resistance on the Arab streets, posing a threat to their own regimes.
As part of this strategy, Egypt tightened its control over the Rafah border crossing to further isolate Gaza. Eliminating Hamas became a crucial goal for Sisi, in order to remove any obstacles in Gaza, that could have represented a threat to the Egyptian government.
President Donald Trump’s return to power revived talk of his “deal of the century”; his proposal to displace Palestinians from Gaza gave it a clearer shape.
During Trump’s first term, Sisi expressed a clear support for the “deal of the century” but the Egyptian military in Cairo has firmly rejected the US president’s proposal to push Palestinians from Gaza into Egypt and Jordan. The Egyptian military forces views this proposal as a real threat to the nation’s security, amid fears that a forced displacement of Palestinians into Sinai could have alter the region’s demographic identity.
Resettling Palestinian refugees in Sinai could lead to long-term tensions between the Egyptian state and local populations, and definitively destroy any chance of establishing a future Palestinian state.
Such a scenario would deal a major blow to Egypt’s regional standing, as it would be seen as complicit in liquidating the Palestinian cause. There are also significant security and economic risks, as the arrival of large numbers of Palestinian refugees would strain Sinai’s already struggling infrastructure and over time, these refugees could become a permanent pressure point for Egypt.
Amid these concerns, Sisi is also facing uncertainty over his political future beyond 2030. Under the current constitution, he can remain in power only until that time. Any further constitutional amendments to potentially extend his rule further would likely require support from Trump, who in the past claimed to b as his “favorite dictator”.
Would Sisi trade acceptance of the displacement plan for ensuring his continued rule? This remains a key question in Egyptian political circles. The answer depends also in part on the position of the Gulf states backing the Egyptian regime.
Despite the Egyptian military’s opposition to the displacement Palestinian plan, If there will be an agreement between Egypt’s political leadership and regional and international powers, the military may have to accept compromises, establishing buffer zones under Egyptian security control, without formally recognizing them as a permanent solution.
Gaza is not just a border area for Egypt; it is a key element of its national security, regional policy and economy, and potentially its future demographic balance. Any scenario involving Gaza – whether war, reconstruction or displacement directly impacts Egypt and places it at the centre of regional power dynamics.
Cairo must therefore strive to maintain its role as a principal player in Gaza, while working to prevent any scenario that could shift the geopolitical balance in favour of other actors.
